Gold & Silver Report 2nd March 2015

Reduced economic uncertainty after Greece landed a fourth month extension curbed precious metals prices this week, with Gold dropping near a seven week low around the key USD$1,200 mark. However US Fed delays on expected interest rate hikes and some weaker US economic data helped provide a rally by the end of the week.

Price and charts snapshot:

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Nasdaq

On Monday gold was hovering near the key USD$1,200 mark after last week’s fourth-month debt extension to Greece was agreed upon^[1]. Safe-haven metal support declined, dropping the yellow metal near its lowest point in seven weeks. On Tuesday gold remained steady near this low point, as investors awaited an announcement by US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen^[2]. On Wednesday Yellen indicated the reserve will be flexible about an interest rate rise, causing the US dollar to weaken and fuelling a precious metals rally, with silver rising over 3% and gold jumping by 1%. China’s return from the Lunar New Year holiday also helped gold prices.^[3] On Thursday, Gold maintained prices above the USD$1,200 level as Yellen’s comments led investors to delay expectations of a US interest rate hike^[4]. Gold then rebounded on Friday as mostly poor US economic data compounded these expectations. However, the precious metal was still set for its biggest monthly loss since September due to a steady dollar and high performance in European share markets^[5].

Eurozone finance ministers reached an agreement on Friday to extend heavily indebted Greece’s financial rescue by four months. This deal has removed the immediate risk of Greece defaulting on its debts next month and threat of being forced out of the euro currency zone. Public holidays in China due to the Lunar New Year also put some pressure on prices^[6].

Expectations over the anticipated US Fed interest rate hike amid the strengthening US economy have been another force curbing gold’s safe-haven appeal. Investors were keen to analyse Yellen’s announcement^[7], however her comments indicating ‘flexibility’ were seen as dovish, boosting gold, according to Howie Lee of Phillip Futures, who added “But we don’t think this rally will be sustainable. Yellen also made it abundantly clear that the US economy is recovering and she will be looking to normalise interest rates at one point. In the longer term that doesn’t spell much optimism for gold”^[8].

This news, combined with other weaker US economic data later in the week provided a boost for precious metals. US consumer sentiment in particular fell from an 11-year high, while George Gero from RBC Capital markets in New York reported “The revision of the GDP to 2.2% versus expected 2.1 helped, so we have some short-covering going on,” adding “We may see some higher prices next week.”^[9].