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What a month June has been with the RBA deciding early this month to keep interest rates on hold and the US Federal Reserve deciding last week not to increase interest rates. You would have thought that these decisions would have lead to less volatility but the share market and foreign exchange markets have reacted violently.
What is the culprit for this volatility? Over here in Europe the upcoming BREXIT referendum is being blamed for recent global market volatility. With polls indicating that the potential outcome of the UK’s vote on whether they remain or leave the EU on a knife edge, what is now referred to as “project fear” is in full swing. The recent global outpouring of support for the UK to remain within the EU is unprecedented and I think it’s essential that we ask the question why?
Why would the US President suggest the UK remain in the EU?
Why would the G7 make the same suggestion?
Why would the IMF President chime in and suggest the same?
Why would the FED Chair Yellen cite BREXIT in her policy statement?
Whats the answer? I can’t help but think it’s purely self-interest. Perhaps there is a genuine concern that the EU and the global economy for that matter is in such a fragile state that the UK should not rock the boat. Why else would these politicians and bureaucrats weigh in, when as a rule they mind their own business when it comes to politics of their allies.
Whatever the reason the BREXIT vote of the UK will be a momentous rebuke to the establishment next week if the UK decides to exit the EU. Whatever your thoughts on this vote volatility seems to be the flavour of 2016 with markets often moving in wild and unpredictable ways. The BREXIT referendum will take place on the 23rd of June UK time.
Scott is a born and bred Queenslander who has experience in commodities from agriculture through to metals. He spent the last 7 years in Asia and Europe and is now based in the UK. His experience in the financing, marketing, trading and operations of various commodity businesses contribute to his passionate views on the economy. While sometimes polarising, we do like to hear Scott’s views particularly in respect to the affect market sentiment has on gold and silver pricing.
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