An important election is coming up soon. This isn’t the anticipated and much publicised and dramaticised US election. This referendum could potentially have more impact to the world that the recent UK BREXIT vote. What is it you ask? It’s the upcoming Italian referendum.
Italian Prime minister Matteo Renzi has staked his career on a vote on much needed Italian political reforms shrouded in a referendum. If Renzi loses this referendum he has announced he will step aside which will throw Italian politics into chaos and very likely end up with the leading contenders 9both the 5-star party and the Northern League parties) to pursue an Italian referendum on its membership in the EU itself. Presently polls suggest that there is every chance that Italians would vote to leave the EU alongside their UK counterparts if given the choice.
With the UK departing the EU, Italy represents the 3rd largest economy in the EU behind Germany and France. With its banking sector in tatters and crippled by bad debt the Italian economy continues to struggle. EU regulations post the GFC which prohibit EU member bank bail outs is continue to frustrate the Italian governments efforts in overhauling their failing banking sector.
This referendum will be held between October and November making the 4th quarter of 2016 one of the most interesting times in recent memory.
Other key upcoming international economic / political events remain (which will be written about soon):
4th Quarter 2016 US FED interest rates decision,
November 2016 US election,
2017 French Presidential election,
2017 German election,
China agreeing to limit Steel production overcapacity at the recent G20 (this could materially impact Australia and particularly the AUD moving forward).
As always we will continue to monitor and report these events and their potential impact to precious metals prices as we move forward.