Gold & Silver Report 23 Feb 2015

It was a choppy week for precious metals, with changing news during the week concerning the greek debt negotiations. The US Fed also announced a more cautious view, causing speculation that interest rates may not change until later, possibly next year.

Price and charts snapshot:

On Monday Gold rose due to a weaker US dollar and after a eurozone finance ministers’ meeting on how to proceed with Greece’s bailout programme got under way^[1]. The US dollar slid due to US consumer sentiment unexpectedly falling last week from an 11-year high amid worries over slowing economic growth^[2]. Gold snapped the rally on Tuesday however, losing almost 1% percent after a breakdown of debt talks between Greece and the eurozone finance ministers, while demand from China decreased ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday^[3]. On Wednesday, Gold and silver plunged to six-week lows, due to fears that Greek banks will continue to get emergency funding despite the breakdown in debt talks^[4]. On Thursday, Gold managed to cling to some small gains as a US Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials were cautious about raising interest rates too soon, hurting the dollar^[5]. On Friday, Gold skimmed a seven-week low after the eurozone discussed extending the Greek bailout by just four months^[6].

It was quite a choppy week but broader sentiment remained bearish. The dips in gold prices comes just before China’s week-long Lunar New Year holiday; according to Barclays, “interest tends to taper off after the Lunar New Year, leaving (gold) prices more exposed”^[7]. The volatile state of Greek negotiations has also been another factor. As first, markets fell as talks collapsed. and later as negotiations progressed, Germany refused the opportunity for Greece to write off any debts, this raised concern, however the tactic appeared to work as Greece rushed to accept a four month extension.

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting expressed concern over raising interest rates too soon, fearing such a move could hinder the US economic recovery. Policy makers also fretted over the impact of dropping “patient” from the central bank’s interest rate guidance^[8]. The US dollar fell against a basket of major currencies after the minutes were released^[9]. Tai Wong, of BMO Capital Markets in New York said that “This should put a short-term bottom in gold confirming what some in the market have suspected, that the Fed would wait to feel inflation’s bayonet in their sternum before raising rates,” and noted “the market will look for a rate hike not earlier than September, though I rather think it’s more likely September 2016.”. However, the outlook for the dollar retained upbeat, with many investors continuing to price a US interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve some time this year^[10].

Author Lisa Casagrande | https://www.goldbullionaustralia.com.au